Business

Three growth scenarios set for southeastern region

Growth in Vietnam's southeastern region could reach 8.07% annually during the 2021-2030 period, according to a report by the Institute of Development Strategy under the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).
Three growth scenarios set for southeastern region ảnh 1Barges load up rice for export in Tay Ninh province. (Photo: VNA) 
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - Growth in Vietnam's southeasternregion could reach 8.07% annually during the 2021-2030 period, according to areport by the Institute of Development Strategy under the Ministry of Planningand Investment (MPI).

The report said the region has become a dynamic development areain recent decades with rapid growth recorded on all fronts including economic,financial, commercial, service, education and job training. 

The Southeastern region has been home to a skilled labour forceand one of the country's leaders in science and technology, innovation anddigital transformation.

According to MPI, projected growth for the region was between 6.04%to 8.07% annually for the period. 

In scenario 1 or the low-growth scenario, the projected grossregional domestic product (GRDP) growth rate is expected to average 4.92% peryear for the period 2021-2025, and reach an average of 7.18% per year forthe period 2026-2030. Overall for the period, the average growth rate isprojected to be 6.04% per year. For the period 2031-2050, the expected growthrate is around 6.85% per year.

During the period 2021-2030, the contribution of total factorproductivity (TFP) to growth is estimated to be 46.8%; labour productivity growthis expected to average 5.4% per year. The projected average per capita incomeis around 200 million VND (8,200 USD) by 2025, 315 million VND (11,800 USD) by2030, and 833 million VND (38,500 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 11.4 quadrillion VNDwill be needed during the period 2021-2030, which is 2.1 times the amountrequired during 2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current prices isexpected to be around 27%.

In scenario 2 or the medium-growth scenario, the projected GRDPgrowth rate is expected to average 5.48% per year for the period 2021-2025, andreach an average of 8.66% per year for the period 2026-2030. Overall for theperiod, the average growth rate is forecast to be 7.06% per year. For theperiod 2031-2050, the expected growth rate is around 7.2% per year.

During 2021-2030, the contribution of total factor productivity(TFP) to growth is estimated to be 50.9%; labor productivity growth is expectedto average 6.4% per year. The projected average per capita income is around 205million VND (8,400 USD) by 2025, 345 million VND (13,000 USD) by 2030, and 1billion VND (38,500 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 12.3 quadrillion VNDwill be needed during 2021-2030, which is 2.3 times the amount required during2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current prices is expected to bearound 28%.

In scenario 3 or the high-growth scenario, the projected GRDPgrowth rate is expected to average 5.97% per year for the period 2021-2025 and10.2% per year for the period 2026-2030. Overall for the period, the average growthrate is projected to be 8.07% per year. For the period 2031-2050, the expectedgrowth rate is around 7.6% per year.

During the period 2021-30, the contribution of total factorproductivity (TFP) to growth is estimated to be 58.5%; labour productivity growthis expected to average 7.4% per year. The projected average per capita incomeis around 210 million VND (8,600 USD) by 2025, 380 million VND (14,500 USD)by 2030, and 1.2 billion VND (53,000 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 15.8 quadrillion VNDwill be needed during the period 2021-2030, which is three times theamount required during 2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current pricesis expected to be around 32%.

The projection was made based on a number of input variables suchas economic, trade, and investment growth, demographic changes, social issues,climate change, the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Vietnam'sdevelopmental strategy.

The institute said the region has been and is to play a crucialrole in the country's next socio-economic development phase. In 2022, theregion's GRDP accounted for about 31 % of Vietnam's GDP with exports at 35% andregional budget at 38%./.
VNA
#Institute of Development Strategy #Vietnamplus #Vietnam News Agency #Ministry of Planning and Investment #low-growth scenario Vietnam
Follow VietnamPlus

Related News

GDP growth target of 6.5-percent remains major challenge: Deputy Minister

GDP growth target of 6.5-percent remains major challenge: Deputy Minister

Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2021 was 4.48 percent, lower than the 5.2 percent scenario projected for the “new normal” situation, said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong, noting that this adds more pressure on the remaining months of this year so the target of 6.5-percent growth can be achieved.
HCM City’s H2 positive growth scenario requires 155,000-165,000 jobs

HCM City’s H2 positive growth scenario requires 155,000-165,000 jobs

If the global economy and Vietnamese one grow positively in the second half of this year, Ho Chi Minh City’s labour market will need 155,000-165,000 more jobs, according to the Centre of Forecasting Manpower Needs and Labour Market Information (FALMI) under the Ho Chi Minh City’s Department of Labour, Valids and Social Affairs.

See more

Minister-Chairman of the Government Office Tran Van Son speaks at the press briefing on July 3. (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam’s GDP growth poised to beat forecast by 0.3%: official

As challenges are on the horizon, the Government outlined several missions and measures for the final six months of the year, including closely monitoring the operations of two-tier local government model, implementing regulations on decentralisation and authority distribution to provide timely guidance and resolve local bottlenecks, ensuring smooth settlement of administrative procedures.

The organising committee presents flowers and gifts to lucky passengers boarding the Osaka – Da Nang flight at the welcome ceremony. (Photo: VNA)

Da Nang welcomes first Osaka flight after hiatus

The Osaka–Da Nang route will operate four times a week on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays, adding to the existing daily Narita–Da Nang service, bringing the total number of weekly flights from Japan to Da Nang to 11.

Vietnam’s stock market expects upgrading in September (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam’s stock market expects upgrading in September

In recent months, the ministry has worked closely with relevant agencies to enhance both the legal framework and market infrastructure. As a result, the majority of key criteria for reclassification have now been met.

Kelly Hattel, Senior Financial Sector Specialist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) delivers speech at the seminar. (Photo: VNA)

Fintech sandbox expands access to capital for SMEs

Director of the SBV’s Payment Department Pham Anh Tuan said the issuance of Decree 94 provides a legal basis for sandbox participants to trial new products, services, and business models in real-life conditions, ultimately benefiting customers.

Vietnam’s import and export of goods. (Photo: VNA)

Vietnam forecasts trade surplus of 4 billion USD in H1

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), export turnover alone is projected to reach 215–217 billion USD, up approximately 13.8–14%. This results in an estimated trade surplus of 3.4–4 billion USD.

A view of the Van Phong Economic Zone. (Photo: vietnambiz.vn)

PM approves two new urban areas in Van Phong Economic Zone

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has recently approved the investment policy for two new urban areas in Van Phong Economic Zone in the central province of Khanh Hoa with a total capital of more than 65 trillion VND (2.5 billion USD).

Passengers board a Vietjet plane. (Photo courtesy of Vietjet)

Ministry of Construction responds to proposal to reduce airfares

The Ministry of Construction has also directed the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam to deploy solutions aimed at supplementing and balancing the capacity of Vietnamese airlines' domestic and international routes, helping airlines to improve their operating capacity in accordance with demand.

OSZAR »